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Valuation

Forecast a company's figures

valuation_forecast · Reads only · Markdown

Model forecasts with 80% and 95% intervals for revenue, EBITDA or monthly sales, with a confidence label and the plan checked against the range.

Free*

*Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month for the whole account, then $0.50 per 10,000 reads.

An example

Kuechentechnik Nord plans 21.5, 23 and 24 million in revenue for the next three years. Does its history support that?

Your agent callsvaluation_forecastFree*

The example business is Hansen & Voss, a restaurant-equipment wholesaler in Hamburg with 60 staff. The reply is the one the tool really gives.

With these arguments
{
  "series": [
    {
      "name": "Revenue (EUR m)",
      "values": [
        13.2,
        14.8,
        15.9,
        16.9,
        18.4
      ],
      "start": "2021",
      "plan": [
        21.5,
        23,
        24
      ],
      "industry_growth": 0.04
    }
  ],
  "horizon": 3
}
What comes back
{
  "series": [
    {
      "name": "Revenue",
      "model": "growth_drift",
      "history": 5,
      "points": [
        {
          "period": "2026",
          "forecast": 19.993,
          "low_80": 19.4277,
          "high_80": 20.5748,
          "low_95": 19.135,
          "high_95": 20.8896
        },
        {
          "period": "2027",
          "forecast": 21.724,
          "low_80": 20.7798,
          "high_80": 22.7111,
          "low_95": 20.2968,
          "high_95": 23.2516
        }
      ],
      "confidence": "high",
      "interval_width": 0.0588,
      "growth_history": 0.086578,
      "growth_forecast": 0.086578,
      "plan_check": [
        {
          "period": "2026",
          "plan": 21.5,
          "forecast": 19.993,
          "gap": 1.507,
          "position": "above the range"
        },
        {
          "period": "2027",
          "plan": 23,
          "forecast": 21.724,
          "gap": 1.276,
          "position": "above the range"
        }
      ],
      "against_industry": 0.046578
    }
  ],
  "levels": [
    80,
    95
  ],
  "method": "Short series: drift, the average change carried forward (on the logarithm when every value is positive, so growth compounds). Eight points or more: AutoETS and AutoTheta too, keeping the model that best forecast the last points held back. Confidence: high when the 80% interval at the end is within 10% of the forecast (with five points or more), medium within 25%, low otherwise."
}

Use it when

To test a business plan, or to fill the forecast years of a DCF.

What it does

Model forecasts with 80% and 95% intervals for up to ten series (revenue, EBITDA, monthly sales): a short annual series by its own growth carried forward (drift on the logarithm), a long or seasonal one also by ETS and Theta, keeping the model that best forecast its last points held back. Each comes with a confidence label, its history's and forecast's growth, the plan checked against the range, and the gap to the industry's growth. Runs on Conecto's analysis service.

What comes back

series (name, model, history, points with forecast, low_80, high_80, low_95 and high_95, confidence, interval_width, growth_history, growth_forecast, holdout_error, plan_check, against_industry), levels and method. Every reply also carries cost_usd and balance_usd.

Inputs

NameTypeWhat it is
seriesRequiredarray of objects1 to 10 items.
series[].nameRequiredstring1 to 200 characters.
series[].valuesRequiredarray of numbersOldest first. 3 to 240 items.
series[].startstringThe first value's period: 2021, 2021-Q3 or 2021-07. Matches ^\d{4}(-Q[1-4]|-\d{2})?$.
series[].frequencystringOne of: year,quarter,month. Default: year.
series[].planarray of number or nullThe business plan for the forecast periods, checked against the model's range. Up to 36 items.
series[].industry_growthnumberThe industry's growth a year (Eurostat, say), compared with the forecast's. A decimal: 0.09 is 9%. -1 to 5.
horizoninteger1 to 36. Default: 3.

The call

Over MCP, call valuation_forecast on https://api.conecto.chat/mcp/valuation. Over REST:

Terminal
curl -X POST https://api.conecto.chat/v1/tools/valuation_forecast \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $CONECTO_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"series":[{"name":"Revenue (EUR m)","values":[13.2,14.8,15.9,16.9,18.4],"start":"2021","plan":[21.5,23,24],"industry_growth":0.04}],"horizon":3}'

When it refuses

A refused call costs nothing and says what to do next.

CodeWhenWhat to do
invalid_input400A series has fewer than three values, or something in it can't be read.Send at least three values, oldest first.
unavailable503The analysis service isn't switched on yet, or didn't answer.Try again later.

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