--- name: "valuation_forecast" area: "valuation" title: "Forecast a company's figures" price: "free" method: "POST" url: "https://api.conecto.chat/v1/tools/valuation_forecast" mcp_server: "https://api.conecto.chat/mcp/valuation" auth: "Authorization: Bearer " docs_url: "https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_forecast" --- # Forecast a company's figures (`valuation_forecast`) Model forecasts with 80% and 95% intervals for revenue, EBITDA or monthly sales, with a confidence label and the plan checked against the range. Model forecasts with 80% and 95% intervals for up to ten series (revenue, EBITDA, monthly sales): a short annual series by its own growth carried forward (drift on the logarithm), a long or seasonal one also by ETS and Theta, keeping the model that best forecast its last points held back. Each comes with a confidence label, its history's and forecast's growth, the plan checked against the range, and the gap to the industry's growth. Runs on Conecto's analysis service. Price: Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month for the whole account, then $0.50 per 10,000 reads. A call that fails costs nothing. ## Use it when To test a business plan, or to fill the forecast years of a DCF. - For a value from the forecast, use [valuation_dcf](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_dcf.md). ## Say this to your agent > Kuechentechnik Nord plans 21.5, 23 and 24 million in revenue for the next three years. Does its history support that? ## Inputs | Name | Type | Required | Description | Allowed values | Default | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | `series` | array of objects | yes | 1 to 10 items. | | | | `series[].name` | string | yes, in each item of `series` | 1 to 200 characters. | | | | `series[].values` | array of numbers | yes, in each item of `series` | Oldest first. 3 to 240 items. | | | | `series[].start` | string | no | The first value's period: 2021, 2021-Q3 or 2021-07. Matches ^\\d{4}(-Q[1-4]\|-\\d{2})?$. | | | | `series[].frequency` | string | no | | `"year"`, `"quarter"`, `"month"` | `"year"` | | `series[].plan` | array of number or null | no | The business plan for the forecast periods, checked against the model's range. Up to 36 items. | | | | `series[].industry_growth` | number | no | The industry's growth a year (Eurostat, say), compared with the forecast's. A decimal: 0.09 is 9%. -1 to 5. | | | | `horizon` | integer | no | 1 to 36. | | `3` | ## Example Written for Hansen & Voss, a restaurant-equipment wholesaler in Hamburg with 60 staff. MCP: call `valuation_forecast` on the MCP server `https://api.conecto.chat/mcp/valuation` with these arguments: ```json { "series": [ { "name": "Revenue (EUR m)", "values": [ 13.2, 14.8, 15.9, 16.9, 18.4 ], "start": "2021", "plan": [ 21.5, 23.0, 24.0 ], "industry_growth": 0.04 } ], "horizon": 3 } ``` REST: ```bash curl https://api.conecto.chat/v1/tools/valuation_forecast \ -H "Authorization: Bearer $CONECTO_KEY" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -d '{"series": [{"name": "Revenue (EUR m)", "values": [13.2, 14.8, 15.9, 16.9, 18.4], "start": "2021", "plan": [21.5, 23.0, 24.0], "industry_growth": 0.04}], "horizon": 3}' ``` ## Response ```json { "call_id": "5f0c8a2e-3b7d-4c1e-9a64-2d8e1f7b0c93", "tool": "valuation_forecast", "status": "succeeded", "replayed": false, "cost_usd": "$0.00", "balance_usd": "$19.75", "result": { "series": [ { "name": "Revenue", "model": "growth_drift", "history": 5, "points": [ { "period": "2026", "forecast": 19.993, "low_80": 19.4277, "high_80": 20.5748, "low_95": 19.135, "high_95": 20.8896 }, { "period": "2027", "forecast": 21.724, "low_80": 20.7798, "high_80": 22.7111, "low_95": 20.2968, "high_95": 23.2516 } ], "confidence": "high", "interval_width": 0.0588, "growth_history": 0.086578, "growth_forecast": 0.086578, "plan_check": [ { "period": "2026", "plan": 21.5, "forecast": 19.993, "gap": 1.507, "position": "above the range" }, { "period": "2027", "plan": 23.0, "forecast": 21.724, "gap": 1.276, "position": "above the range" } ], "against_industry": 0.046578 } ], "levels": [ 80, 95 ], "method": "Short series: drift, the average change carried forward (on the logarithm when every value is positive, so growth compounds). Eight points or more: AutoETS and AutoTheta too, keeping the model that best forecast the last points held back. Confidence: high when the 80% interval at the end is within 10% of the forecast (with five points or more), medium within 25%, low otherwise." } } ``` `result`: series (name, model, history, points with forecast, low_80, high_80, low_95 and high_95, confidence, interval_width, growth_history, growth_forecast, holdout_error, plan_check, against_industry), levels and method. ## Errors | Code | Status | When | Fix | |---|---|---|---| | `invalid_input` | 400 | A series has fewer than three values, or something in it can't be read. | Send at least three values, oldest first. | | `unavailable` | 503 | The analysis service isn't switched on yet, or didn't answer. | Try again later. | The refusals every tool can give (401 key, 402 balance, 429 limits) are on the errors page: https://conecto.chat/docs/errors.md ## Related - [valuation_dcf](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_dcf.md): A DCF valuation from free cash flows and a WACC: present values, terminal value, enterprise and equity value, and a sensitivity grid. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_wacc](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_wacc.md): The WACC from the risk-free rate, the market premium and a beta relevered from peers, with each step written out. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_rates](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_rates.md): Today's risk-free curve and its recent average from the Bundesbank, the ECB or the US Treasury, as decimals. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_fx](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_fx.md): Amounts converted between currencies at the ECB's euro reference rates, on a date or at a past year's average. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_multiples](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_multiples.md): Peer multiples with their quartiles and the enterprise and equity value they imply for the target, less any discount. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_lbo](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_lbo.md): A buyout financed with debt, year by year: sources and uses, each debt tranche, the exit, MOIC, IRR and an IRR grid by entry and exit multiple. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_benchmark](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_benchmark.md): The target's KPIs against its peers: quartiles, percentile, gap to the median and whether each is a strength or a potential. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_scores](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_scores.md): Altman, Piotroski and Beneish scores from a company's figures, and whether it is growing, mature or distressed. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_beta](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_beta.md): Betas of listed peers from closing prices the business gives, with R squared, the t-statistic and the unlevered beta. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month. - [valuation_football_field](https://conecto.chat/tools/valuation/valuation_football_field.md): The valuation ranges side by side, with the overall range, the overlap, markers and a slide for the deck. Free up to 1,000,000 reads a month.